Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

AD 0xadbd…93dc other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL −$373 (-82%) realized −$345 · open −$28

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip

Net edge+33%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$152per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+33.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+47.1%	+33.1%	50%	50%	-96.6%
≤30d	2	+47.1%	+33.1%	50%	50%	-96.6%
≤90d	2	+47.1%	+33.1%	50%	50%	-96.6%
all	2	+47.1%	+33.1%	50%	50%	-96.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+33.1%	50%	-96.6%
10%	+20.3%	50%	-96.9%
15%	+8.7%	50%	-97.2%
20%	-2.0%	50%	-97.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -96% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$383 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.03 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$46

Realized−$345

Unrealized−$28

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$152

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	Yes	17¢	9¢	$59	$31	−$28 (-47%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$392	−$383	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$5	+$10	+190%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$60	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	26¢	$392	3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	34¢	$5	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.77 · official $48.54 · 3 history records