trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 10% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 10% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 28 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 29% | 0% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.3% | 0% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -18.0% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -25.9% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 52¢ | 52¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 19 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $63 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 06 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 05 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 04 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 04 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 02 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? | Dec 12 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? | Apr 18 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? | Apr 18 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 16 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 15 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Apr 10 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| X allowed to operate in China before May? | Apr 10 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? | Apr 08 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Apr 01 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? | Mar 30 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 27 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | Mar 25 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on March 11? | Mar 12 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? | Mar 10 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 09 | $14 | $0 | -0% |