Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AD 0xadbe…f5df crypto 838 markets active 7h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$817 (-15%) realized −$817 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%419W / 419L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$26
14 days−$28
30 days−$687
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$885
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -2.1% -11.5% 54% 54% -17.1%
≤30d 795 -5.8% -14.7% 50% 49% -23.6%
≤90d 838 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 48% -24.1%
all 838 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 48% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 48% -24.1%
10% -23.6% 47% -31.3%
15% -31.0% 46% -38.0%
20% -37.7% 44% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$817
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses419 / 419
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)838 / 838
History coverage74d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 838 Trades
no open positions (387 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +140%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 26h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 26h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1558 history records