Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AD 0xadc1…052f sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-29%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$32
other 42% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +74.8% +58.1% 50% 50% +6.9%
≤30d 6 -15.6% -23.6% 33% 33% -50.9%
≤90d 6 -15.6% -23.6% 33% 33% -50.9%
all 6 -15.6% -23.6% 33% 33% -50.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 33% -50.9%
10% -30.9% 33% -55.6%
15% -37.6% 33% -59.9%
20% -43.7% 33% -63.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage24d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $20 +$12 +57%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 59¢ $20 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $20 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $20 22d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 45¢ $16 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.68 · official $49.68 (match) · 9 history records