Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

AD 0xadc7…bb50 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$749 (-62%) realized −$754 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate70%7W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$67per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Kalshi-fit28%portable

Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-2.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+7.9%	-2.4%	70%	60%	-78.6%
≤30d	10	+7.9%	-2.4%	70%	60%	-78.6%
≤90d	10	+7.9%	-2.4%	70%	60%	-78.6%
all	10	+7.9%	-2.4%	70%	60%	-78.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.4%	60%	-78.6%
10%	-11.7%	50%	-80.7%
15%	-20.2%	50%	-82.6%
20%	-28.1%	40%	-84.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$272 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.09 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage

Net worth$188

Realized−$754

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses7 / 3

Open positions6

Markets (closed)10 / 18

History coverage35d

Avg bet$67

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	84¢	84¢	$95	$94	−$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	66¢	68¢	$60	$61	+$1 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	12¢	$9	$12	+$3 (+37%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	20¢	$9	$10	+$1 (+14%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20	Jun 20	$51	+$28	+55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$42	+$20	+47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$16	+$10	+61%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Jun 20	$19	−$19	-100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$9	−$3	-37%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$6	+$1	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$2	$0	+4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	Jun 19	$808	−$793	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	84¢	$65	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	84¢	$25	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$50	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$17	4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN	BUY	56¢	$35	6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$20	6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20	BUY	64¢	$51	6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	17¢	$10	6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	87¢	$5	17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$10	17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	97¢	$6	19h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$6	19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	52¢	$5	20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$5	20h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	50¢	$5	20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$5	20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$5	20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$6	27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$10	27h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	SELL Yes	1¢	$16	28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	96¢	$2	28h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	11¢	$197	12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	72¢	$275	12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	42¢	$194	14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	39¢	$142	15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$9	35d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$9	35d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$9	35d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	48¢	$19	35d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.65 · official $234.79 · 72 history records