Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AD 0xadcd…29e9 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$729 (-3%) realized −$377 · open −$352
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%73W / 41L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$291
7 days+$407
14 days−$368
30 days−$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$950
world 23% +$121
sports 16% −$605
tech 14% +$284
politics 8% +$405
crypto 2% +$77
finance 0% +$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +9.6% -0.8% 81% 81% +2.7%
≤30d 38 -2.8% -12.1% 71% 71% -15.3%
≤90d 58 -8.3% -17.0% 69% 62% -14.5%
all 114 +10.7% +0.1% 64% 55% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 55% -10.9%
10% -9.4% 39% -19.5%
15% -18.2% 18% -27.2%
20% -26.2% 8% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$105 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$1,628
Realized−$377
Unrealized−$352
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses73 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions14
Markets (closed)114 / 128
History coverage164d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $500 $509 +$9 (+2%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $300 $313 +$13 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 63¢ 52¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 63¢ 12¢ $200 $40 −$160 (-80%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 70¢ 16¢ $150 $36 −$114 (-76%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 12¢ $100 $18 −$82 (-82%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$42 +42%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $102 +$29 +28%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $125 +$73 +58%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 23 $500 +$116 +23%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$48 +47%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$17 +17%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$37 +73%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 22 $100 +$26 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$41 +40%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $100 +$17 +17%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$35 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$20 +20%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 −$500 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$52 +26%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 14 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Jun 14 $202 −$115 -57%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $150 +$45 +30%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? May 31 $204 −$130 -64%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 31 $500 +$110 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 20 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1,000 +$250 +25%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 26 $100 +$65 +65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 26 $250 +$150 +60%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $100 +$24 +24%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Apr 08 $400 +$41 +10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 08 $355 −$355 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $500 +$43 +8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $75 +$12 +16%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Italy win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Mar 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $130 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $198 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $101 15h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 15h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 26h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 26h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $503 27h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $616 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 98¢ $149 28h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 33h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 33h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 38h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 38h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 66¢ $101 38h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 93¢ $126 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $100 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $142 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $100 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $101 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $81 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $100 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,627.97 · official $1,628.01 (match) · 319 history records