Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadce…b919 crypto 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-2%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate95%87W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$47
other 17% +$4
weather 16% +$2
tech 10% −$1
finance 4% +$3
sports 1% −$1
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 33 -4.8% -13.8% 94% 3% -13.0%
≤90d 73 -0.5% -9.9% 97% 5% -10.3%
all 92 -2.9% -12.2% 95% 8% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 8% -11.5%
10% -20.6% 2% -20.0%
15% -28.2% 0% -27.7%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses87 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)92 / 97
History coverage142d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 56¢ 93¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 57¢ 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 1? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 24? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 23? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 21? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18? May 20 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? May 18 $3 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 13? May 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 66°F or higher on May 13? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 7? May 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) win the most seats in the 20 May 06 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 06 $1 $0 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $2 $0 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28? May 06 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 12d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 97¢ $10 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? BUY No 20¢ $21 19d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 20d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 20d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 1? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 21d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 24d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.25 · official $63.25 (match) · 203 history records