Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AD 0xadd0…e19e world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 416d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%34W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$5
world 41% −$20
economics 8% −$1
crypto 3% +$1
politics 2% −$10
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 34% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 41 -0.9% -10.3% 39% 0% -10.0%
all 75 -0.9% -10.4% 45% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

416d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses34 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage416d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 26 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $68 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $86 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $74 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $74 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $75 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $334 −$4 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $78 −$2 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $65 +$6 +10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $242 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $65 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $136 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $217 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $201 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $87 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $218 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $65 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $61 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $67 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $157 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $148 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $92 −$11 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $74 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $37 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $72 −$6 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $98 −$7 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $71 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $211 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $71 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $577 −$1 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $728 −$8 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $580 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $8 −$1 -15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $637 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? Dec 11 $120 +$3 +2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 29 $6 $0 +2%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Circle IPO in 2025? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $69 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 51¢ $12 15h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 51¢ $56 15h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $25 18h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $43 18h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $48 22h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $19 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 37h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $47 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $21 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $68 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $75 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $74 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $74 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $74 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 61¢ $54 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 61¢ $13 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 62¢ $68 7d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $75 7d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $75 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records