Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:30:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadd4…51da sports 668 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-2%) realized −$85 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate41%252W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$10
14 days−$2
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$120
world 26% −$7
other 22% +$40
culture 3% −$15
politics 3% $0
finance 1% −$2
tech 1% +$12
crypto 0% −$3
economics 0% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +11.4% +0.8% 60% 42% -5.9%
≤30d 159 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 32% -12.1%
≤90d 348 -4.5% -13.6% 41% 20% -19.4%
all 608 -0.8% -10.2% 41% 29% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 29% -11.5%
10% -18.8% 26% -20.0%
15% -26.7% 25% -27.7%
20% -33.8% 23% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses252 / 356
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions60
Markets (closed)608 / 668
History coverage140d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 60 History 608 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 64¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+21%)
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? No 71¢ 83¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+17%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 22¢ 30¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+37%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 69¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 70¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 77¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 54¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 28¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 20¢ 55¢ $2 $5 +$4 (+176%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 34¢ 51¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+16%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 76¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 76¢ 89¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 60¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 79¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 68¢ 73¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Norway leading at halftime? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 70¢ 60¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +180%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +124%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $23 +$8 +36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -35%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +365%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $35 −$5 -15%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $13 −$1 -8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +140%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 13 $6 −$4 -71%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +45%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2 +$2 +131%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $11 −$8 -69%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 +$1 +55%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -58%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 +$1 +66%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 11 $4 −$3 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 10¢ $1 46m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7h
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 8h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 24¢ $1 8h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $1 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $2 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 8h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $1 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 42¢ $1 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 46¢ $2 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 9h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes $1 10h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 12h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 34¢ $2 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $4 20h
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $15 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 14¢ $1 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.32 · official $180.33 (match) · 2324 history records