Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AD 0xadd6…a8ab world 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$371 (-16%) realized −$371 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$379
30 days−$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$1
other 48% −$373
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 8 -12.7% -21.0% 25% 0% -24.3%
≤90d 8 -12.7% -21.0% 25% 0% -24.3%
all 8 -12.7% -21.0% 25% 0% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 0% -24.3%
10% -28.6% 0% -31.6%
15% -35.5% 0% -38.2%
20% -41.8% 0% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$101 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$371
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage14d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Jun 26 $332 −$1 -0%
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? Jun 26 $333 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Jun 25 $56 −$5 -10%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $55 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $396 −$396 -100%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 13 $364 $0 -0%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 12 $372 +$24 +6%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $364 +$7 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records