trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -1.8% | -11.1% | 0% | 0% | -11.6% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +65.6% | +49.9% | 25% | 25% | +31.3% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +21.7% | +10.1% | 38% | 25% | -1.2% |
| all | 14 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 29% | 14% | -16.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.9% | 14% | -16.8% |
| 10% | -20.3% | 14% | -24.8% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 14% | -32.0% |
| 20% | -35.1% | 14% | -38.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 10¢ | 38¢ | $1,166 | $4,431 | +$3,266 (+280%) |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 22¢ | 35¢ | $428 | $695 | +$267 (+62%) |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 25¢ | 14¢ | $85 | $47 | −$38 (-44%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative elect | Jun 17 | $268 | −$6 | -2% |
| Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Jun 17 | $7 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 04 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 31 | $41 | +$149 | +366% |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | May 04 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Apr 30 | $20 | +$22 | +108% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Apr 02 | $221 | +$7 | +3% |
| Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? | Mar 19 | $102 | −$54 | -53% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Mar 19 | $328 | −$65 | -20% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Mar 19 | $57 | −$6 | -10% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Mar 19 | $34 | −$12 | -36% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)? | Jan 23 | $15 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? | Jan 23 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |