Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AD 0xaddc…844b sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$166 (+44%) realized +$167 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$150
other 24% −$14
crypto 11% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +18.5% +7.2% 70% 70% +27.4%
≤30d 10 +18.5% +7.2% 70% 70% +27.4%
≤90d 10 +18.5% +7.2% 70% 70% +27.4%
all 10 +18.5% +7.2% 70% 70% +27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 70% +27.4%
10% -3.0% 60% +15.2%
15% -12.4% 40% +4.1%
20% -21.0% 30% -6.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.7 per $1 lost it wins $5.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$167
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 −$17 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$12 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $121 +$78 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $24 +$28 +119%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $49 +$15 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 6m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 6m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 23m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 26m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $121 46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $24 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 58¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.81 · official $39.81 (match) · 29 history records