Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0xade1…9040
weather · 1009 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$29 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$29 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses668 / 340
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1008 / 1009
History coverage158d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 0 History 1008 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$290
14 days−$288
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Down 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 100¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 63% +$31
crypto 23% −$14
other 13% +$13
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 16m
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 41m
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 41m
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 409 -5.5% -14.5% 94% 0% -16.2%
≤30d 454 -4.7% -13.8% 94% 1% -14.9%
≤90d 605 -5.4% -14.4% 80% 9% -15.9%
all 1008 -2.3% -11.6% 66% 20% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 20% -9.3%
10% -20.1% 18% -18.0%
15% -27.8% 18% -25.9%
20% -34.9% 17% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.00 (match) · 2830 history records