Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xade2…e86d sports 666 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,022 (+8%) realized +$10,041 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%392W / 266L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$1,078est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$891now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,872
7 days−$10,414
14 days−$10,116
30 days−$7,651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$10,846
other 7% −$956
world 1% −$998
politics 0% +$69
tech 0% −$11
crypto 0% −$96
weather 0% +$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -4.0% -13.2% 51% 51% -40.4%
≤30d 191 -3.8% -13.0% 57% 55% -23.5%
≤90d 574 +1.7% -8.0% 60% 59% -3.5%
all 658 +1.2% -8.5% 60% 59% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 59% -2.7%
10% -17.2% 55% -12.0%
15% -25.2% 46% -20.5%
20% -32.6% 31% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$123 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$891
Realized+$10,041
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses392 / 266
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,078
Open positions8
Markets (closed)658 / 666
History coverage104d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 658 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 46¢ 54¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Hubert Hurkacz 78¢ 73¢ $110 $103 −$7 (-6%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 37¢ 31¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 206 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 17 $256 −$256 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Yokkaichi: Rio Noguchi vs Yasutaka Uchiyama Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 17 $403 −$365 -90%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $231 −$231 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $367 −$367 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Vit Kopriva vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 17 $285 −$285 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon Jun 17 $403 −$403 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Mackenzie McDonald vs Jenson Brooks Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 17 $304 −$304 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Ignacio Buse vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 17 $379 −$379 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $535 −$535 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $505 −$505 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 17 $699 −$699 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $767 −$767 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 17 $584 −$584 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $708 −$708 -100%
Miyazaki: Rio Noguchi vs Tung-Lin Wu Jun 17 $1,343 −$819 -61%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Bublik Jun 17 $1,442 −$1,084 -75%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $785 −$785 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Andrea Pellegrino vs Timofey Skat Jun 17 $1,038 −$1,038 -100%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Valentin Vacherot Jun 17 $1,247 −$1,247 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Jun 17 $993 −$993 -100%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$92 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $302 +$73 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$505 +50%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $202 +$92 +46%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $995 +$1,387 +140%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $1,189 +$707 +60%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $734 +$455 +62%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $303 −$79 -26%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 16 $203 −$3 -2%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $101 +$63 +62%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $302 +$69 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $151 +$39 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $101 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $100 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 1h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 37¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 78¢ $111 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 80¢ $101 6h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 79¢ $101 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $302 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 20h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 68¢ $202 21h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 44¢ $102 23h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 100¢ $2,382 23h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 41¢ $995 25h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 57¢ $78 26h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 63¢ $506 26h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 60¢ $11 26h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 52¢ $101 27h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 52¢ $203 27h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 62¢ $1,189 30h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $734 36h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 49¢ $224 36h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $118 36h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $101 36h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 34¢ $78 36h
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? SELL No 36¢ $78 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $891.24 · official $895.87 (match) · 1305 history records