Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xade2…3db6
crypto · 22 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$472 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$430 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49
Realized−$430
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 1 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$430
7 days−$430
14 days−$430
30 days−$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$7 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $79 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $131 −$16 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $68 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$36 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $250 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $70 −$60 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $106 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $108 +$186 +173%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $211 −$211 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $65 +$34 +53%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $380 −$313 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$22 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $75 −$20 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$19 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 57% +$165
other 29% −$383
sports 14% −$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $53 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $9 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $51 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $53 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $104 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $104 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $11 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $27 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $47 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $27 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $11 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $54 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 29% -30.1%
≤30d 21 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 29% -30.1%
≤90d 21 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 29% -30.1%
all 21 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 29% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 29% -30.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 29% -36.8%
15% -35.3% 29% -42.9%
20% -41.7% 29% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.11 · official $49.11 (match) · 62 history records