Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xade2…bd6c
other · 6 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 2 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI KT Rolster 11¢ 25¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+127%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% +$2
crypto 41% −$4
sports 10% +$1
culture 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $1 10h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $1 10h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $1 10h
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.8% -13.0% 25% 25% -34.2%
≤30d 4 -3.8% -13.0% 25% 25% -34.2%
≤90d 4 -3.8% -13.0% 25% 25% -34.2%
all 4 -3.8% -13.0% 25% 25% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 25% -34.2%
10% -21.3% 25% -40.5%
15% -28.9% 25% -46.2%
20% -35.9% 25% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.27 · official $3.27 (match) · 13 history records