Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AD 0xade3…bba5 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,091 (+10%) realized +$1,107 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +170% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +134% what you keep after slip
Net edge+134%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$1,021per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$1,984now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,633
7 days+$1,536
14 days+$1,536
30 days+$1,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$2,671
sports 15% −$1,437
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+144.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +269.5% +234.3% 57% 57% +3.9%
≤30d 10 +169.7% +144.0% 50% 50% +0.0%
≤90d 10 +169.7% +144.0% 50% 50% +0.0%
all 10 +169.7% +144.0% 50% 50% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +144.0% 50% +0.0%
10% +120.7% 30% -9.5%
15% +99.4% 30% -18.3%
20% +79.8% 30% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +170% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$557 vs −$307 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1,984
Realized+$1,107
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage26d
Avg bet$1,021
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $2,000 $1,984 −$16 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,629 +$1,331 +51%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $341 −$117 -34%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,314 +$747 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,217 +$407 +34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,198 +$290 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido end in a draw? May 27 $98 −$96 -98%
CD Coquimbo Unido leading at halftime? May 27 $88 +$9 +11%
Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: Both Teams to Score May 23 $203 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $2,023 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $3,960 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $225 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $598 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,031 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,025 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,061 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $1,593 11h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $341 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,217 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,487 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,006 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $192 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $99 4d
Will Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $98 23d
CD Coquimbo Unido leading at halftime? SELL Yes 23¢ $43 23d
CD Coquimbo Unido leading at halftime? SELL Yes 25¢ $54 23d
CD Coquimbo Unido leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $88 26d
Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $203 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,983.61 · official $1,983.61 (match) · 22 history records