Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xade7…afbc other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$305 · open +$291
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$1,318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$45
14 days+$23
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$150
sports 34% −$123
politics 26% +$228
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +63.2% +47.6% 83% 83% +46.1%
≤30d 12 +16.8% +5.7% 50% 50% -15.7%
≤90d 16 -8.0% -16.8% 38% 38% -31.0%
all 16 -8.0% -16.8% 38% 38% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 38% -31.0%
10% -24.8% 38% -37.6%
15% -32.0% 38% -43.6%
20% -38.7% 31% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$43 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$1,318
Realized−$305
Unrealized+$291
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage38d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $738 $966 +$228 (+31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $203 $239 +$36 (+18%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 49¢ 80¢ $45 $73 +$28 (+62%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 $0 -6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 +$11 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $51 −$23 -45%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $15 −$3 -18%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $71 −$70 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 22 $783 −$26 -3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $41 +$55 +134%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 09 $102 −$31 -30%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $206 −$50 -24%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $76 −$75 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $30 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $10 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $7 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $7 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $50 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $26 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $25 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $67 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $60 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 57¢ $27 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $24 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 52¢ $51 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $175 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $82 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta SELL Rafael Jodar 25¢ $13 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 55¢ $51 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Rafael Jodar 29¢ $15 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 25d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 58¢ $76 25d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 58¢ $206 27d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 42¢ $41 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,317.76 · official $1,317.76 (match) · 85 history records