Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xade9…9ec3 crypto 372 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$836 (+0%) realized +$836 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate70%282W / 119L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$1,673per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$435
7 days+$935
14 days+$1,076
30 days+$1,071
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$20
crypto 32% +$205
sports 14% +$474
politics 6% +$1
world 2% +$84
economics 1% −$7
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -19.2% -26.9% 78% 1% -9.3%
≤30d 283 -12.2% -20.6% 85% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 353 -3.7% -12.9% 74% 7% -9.3%
all 401 -5.9% -14.8% 70% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 6% -9.4%
10% -23.0% 5% -18.1%
15% -30.4% 5% -26.0%
20% -37.3% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,998) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$19 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$836
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses282 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)401 / 372
History coverage247d
Avg bet$1,673
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 401 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4,950 +$50 +1%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,980 +$20 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4,950 +$50 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,980 +$20 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,798 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $597 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7,064 +$7 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4,950 +$50 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $572 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $597 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $6,169 +$62 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $794 +$2 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7,920 +$51 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4,950 +$50 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $263 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $864 +$9 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $1,798 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $1,791 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $560 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $72 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $71 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $103 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $21 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $65 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $106 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $412 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $495 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $47 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $495 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $495 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1,797 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $445 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $148 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $495 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $192 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2006 history records