Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xade9…5c93 crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$40 (+5%) realized +$79 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$83
14 days−$83
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$73
sports 34% −$19
other 28% −$14
world 2% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -14.4% -22.6% 43% 39% -19.8%
≤30d 44 -14.4% -22.6% 43% 39% -19.8%
≤90d 44 -14.4% -22.6% 43% 39% -19.8%
all 44 -14.4% -22.6% 43% 39% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 39% -19.8%
10% -30.0% 30% -27.5%
15% -36.7% 27% -34.5%
20% -43.0% 27% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage9d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $97 $58 −$39 (-40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +17%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $13 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $20 +$80 +388%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $30 +$16 +52%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $11 +$37 +344%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $20 +$13 +65%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $45 −$44 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$4 +19%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $37 +$20 +52%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $22 +$16 +73%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $25 +$6 +25%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$14 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $69 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.05 · official $59.16 (match) · 91 history records