Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xade9…08d6
weather · 1112 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$146 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$148 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$102
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1033 / 75
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1108 / 1112
History coverage60d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 1108 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$86
14 days−$78
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 3? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 9? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? No 94¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? No 98¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 4? No 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 9? No 94¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 9? No 96¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 30? No 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 26? No 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? No 99¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 12? No 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 3? No 98¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? No 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on May 4? No 97¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 4? No 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 9? No 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9? No 97¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 29? No 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 9? No 97¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 23? No 98¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27? No 94¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 52m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 52m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $21 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 98¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 275 -1.7% -11.1% 93% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 783 -1.1% -10.6% 94% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 1108 -1.2% -10.6% 93% 0% -10.6%
all 1108 -1.2% -10.6% 93% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 0% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -19.1%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.81 · official $101.81 (match) · 2509 history records