Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadec…3c7b other 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15,249 (+7%) realized +$12,011 · open +$3,238
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate72%94W / 37L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$1,087per market
Trades / day76.8pace
Fees−$828est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$43,303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% +$13,928
other 31% −$3,137
world 22% +$8,620
crypto 12% −$165
politics 4% +$1,221
tech 0% −$479
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -14.3% -22.5% 56% 25% -3.6%
≤30d 79 +40.1% +26.8% 57% 29% -7.7%
≤90d 131 +52.7% +38.2% 72% 27% -1.2%
all 131 +52.7% +38.2% 72% 27% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.2% 27% -1.2%
10% +25.0% 19% -10.7%
15% ← realistic here +12.9% 15% -19.3%
20% +1.8% 14% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$929) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$361 vs −$466 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$43,303
Realized+$12,011
Unrealized+$3,238
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses94 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$828
Open positions172
Markets (closed)131 / 191
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$1,087
Trades / day76.8
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 172 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $5,811 $4,681 −$1,129 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2,808 $2,717 −$91 (-3%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ $117 $2,318 +$2,201 (+1880%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,975 $2,301 −$674 (-23%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,711 $2,233 −$479 (-18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,053 $1,300 +$248 (+24%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 35¢ 36¢ $1,050 $1,065 +$15 (+1%)
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? Yes 67¢ 41¢ $1,738 $1,056 −$682 (-39%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,388 $1,035 −$353 (-25%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $835 $1,023 +$188 (+23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $610 $1,023 +$413 (+68%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $950 $998 +$48 (+5%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $829 $918 +$89 (+11%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $770 +$770 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $751 $744 −$7 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ $0 $716 +$716 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $684 $711 +$28 (+4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 53¢ 44¢ $818 $667 −$151 (-18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $618 $661 +$42 (+7%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 69¢ 68¢ $664 $659 −$5 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $544 $620 +$76 (+14%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Petr Yan next? Yes 48¢ $0 $579 +$579 (+0%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $0 $577 +$577 (+0%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $117 $576 +$459 (+392%)
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ $0 $501 +$501 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $872 −$861 -99%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $441 −$441 -100%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3,327 +$154 +5%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $825 +$1,904 +231%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $745 +$72 +10%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $688 +$123 +18%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $311 −$70 -23%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8,649 +$702 +8%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $4,756 +$430 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,890 +$806 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,824 −$315 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $390 −$239 -61%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $183 +$10 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $855 −$561 -66%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,660 +$378 +23%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $211 +$321 +152%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $357 +$337 +94%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,382 −$451 -19%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,113 +$708 +64%
Zuffa Boxing 7: Hickey vs. Tompkins (Middleweight, Main) Jun 07 $152 +$3 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $6,570 +$178 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $394 −$343 -87%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 05 $39 −$38 -98%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $277 +$7 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $22,814 −$109 -0%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $929 +$12 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $22,026 +$7,075 +32%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $200 +$18 +9%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $180 −$180 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 30 $3,077 −$3,925 -128%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $622 −$622 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 29 $881 +$35 +4%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $39 +$5 +12%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel May 27 $2,654 +$5 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 27 $36 +$527 +1457%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 27 $580 −$580 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $5,186 +$687 +13%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 27 $717 +$720 +100%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $25 −$24 -94%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $19 +$3 +15%
Will Bob Menery enter the ring against Johnny Manziel? May 25 $324 +$4 +1%
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31? May 25 $70 +$31 +44%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $922 +$469 +51%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $151 −$147 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 2h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $53 4h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $48 9h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 10h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 11h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 11h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $390 12h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $646 12h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 12h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 12h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $360 13h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $24 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $93 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $146 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $230 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 58¢ $297 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 56¢ $575 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $243 15h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,303.15 · official $43,304.08 (match) · 3500 history records