trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 100% | 0% | -8.4% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +6.3% | -3.8% | 75% | 25% | -5.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +9.3% | -1.1% | 56% | 33% | -0.7% |
| all | 10 | +8.4% | -1.9% | 60% | 30% | -1.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.9% | 30% | -1.8% |
| 10% | -11.3% | 10% | -11.2% |
| 15% | -19.8% | 10% | -19.8% |
| 20% | -27.7% | 10% | -27.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 78¢ | $6 | $5 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 90¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 82¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Yes | 50¢ | 49¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 18¢ | $2 | $3 | +$1 (+29%) |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 40¢ | $1 | $2 | +$1 (+98%) |
| SBF released from custody in 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 5¢ | $3 | $1 | −$1 (-53%) |
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-28%) |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-32%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | Jun 14 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $4 | +$1 | +19% |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | May 21 | $9 | $0 | -3% |
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | May 21 | $4 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? | Apr 23 | $7 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the | Apr 01 | $10 | +$1 | +10% |
| Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? | Apr 01 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | Mar 31 | $23 | −$3 | -11% |
| Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? | Mar 27 | $17 | +$10 | +58% |
| Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 14 | $15 | $0 | +0% |