Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadf1…bd6f sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+3%) realized −$34 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$118
sports 30% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 33% -15.0%
≤30d 6 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 33% -15.0%
≤90d 6 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 33% -15.0%
all 6 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 33% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.8% 33% -15.0%
10% -51.9% 33% -23.1%
15% -56.5% 33% -30.6%
20% -60.8% 33% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$23 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? No 66¢ 88¢ $139 $184 +$45 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $100 +$73 +73%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $46 −$46 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $17 −$17 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY No 76¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY No 63¢ $103 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 4h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 28h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $46 30h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $17 37h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.32 · official $184.32 (match) · 10 history records