Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xadf1…6460 politics 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,583 (+17%) realized +$1,532 · open +$51
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate65%146W / 80L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$92
14 days+$180
30 days+$564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% +$871
other 24% +$589
sports 11% +$43
crypto 4% +$3
world 4% −$15
economics 0% −$37
weather 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +13.4% +2.6% 77% 41% -5.0%
≤30d 99 +15.5% +4.5% 74% 45% +0.9%
≤90d 226 +8.7% -1.6% 65% 38% +4.6%
all 226 +8.7% -1.6% 65% 38% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 38% +4.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 26% -5.4%
15% -19.7% 17% -14.5%
20% -27.5% 11% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$3 · ×3.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.61 per $1 lost it wins $6.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$425
Realized+$1,532
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses146 / 80
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)226 / 234
History coverage49d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $237 $235 −$2 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 20, 2026? No 61¢ 80¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 19, 2026? No 63¢ 80¢ $32 $40 +$9 (+28%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 15, 2026? No 61¢ 90¢ $24 $36 +$11 (+47%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 21, 2026? No 65¢ 65¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Knicks" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Yes 20¢ 40¢ $8 $15 +$8 (+98%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 17, 2026? No 61¢ 91¢ $9 $14 +$4 (+49%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Yes $1 $12 +$11 (+709%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $77 −$12 -16%
Will Trump say "Strong" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $261 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $117 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $160 +$4 +2%
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Miami" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $173 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $31 +$14 +46%
Will Trump say "Stage" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $84 +$8 +10%
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $38 +$9 +24%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 15 $19 $0 +2%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 14 $66 +$14 +22%
Will Trump say "Washington" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250? Jun 12 $8 +$3 +37%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $44 +$19 +42%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $32 +$18 +54%
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $312 +$10 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $324 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$3 +9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $7 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $43 −$17 -40%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $32 +$17 +52%
Will voter turnout be between 70% and 80% in the first round of the 20 Jun 07 $86 +$17 +20%
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 20 Jun 07 $43 −$8 -20%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $100 +$26 +26%
Will voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zam Jun 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Will voter turnout be <52% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian p Jun 07 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 06 $26 −$1 -2%
Will voter turnout be at least 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zamb Jun 06 $0 $0 +20%
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 20 Jun 06 $23 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $14 +$3 +22%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $40 +$10 +26%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 4, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -43%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 5? Jun 04 $75 +$12 +16%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 4? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 3? Jun 03 $29 +$7 +25%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 26, 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $97 +$2 +2%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 6? Jun 02 $51 +$5 +10%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 01 $6 +$2 +37%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $39 +$16 +42%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 30? May 31 $64 +$3 +5%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 30, 2026? May 30 $16 +$3 +20%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 27? May 28 $45 +$25 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $21 1h
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $170 1h
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $46 1h
Will Trump say "Strong" during UFC 250? SELL No 96¢ $9 10h
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? SELL No 97¢ $149 10h
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? SELL No 97¢ $48 10h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? SELL No 98¢ $38 10h
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? BUY No 94¢ $27 19h
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? SELL No 96¢ $82 19h
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? BUY No 97¢ $19 19h
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? BUY No 98¢ $69 20h
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? BUY No 96¢ $38 20h
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? BUY No 96¢ $10 21h
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? BUY No 97¢ $19 21h
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? BUY No 98¢ $21 21h
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? BUY No 97¢ $19 21h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? BUY No 97¢ $1 21h
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? BUY No 95¢ $19 21h
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF SELL Yes $1 21h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? SELL No 98¢ $12 21h
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF BUY Yes $1 21h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? SELL No 98¢ $40 21h
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? SELL No 97¢ $29 21h
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? BUY No 95¢ $67 21h
Will Trump say "Miami" during UFC 250? SELL No 96¢ $4 21h
Will Trump say "Miami" during UFC 250? SELL No 96¢ $19 21h
Will Trump say "Miami" during UFC 250? SELL No 96¢ $19 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $424.70 · official $427.18 (match) · 1416 history records