Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadf2…6599 crypto 786 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$731 (-3%) realized −$731 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%351W / 435L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$246
14 days−$1,181
30 days−$1,663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,983
other 4% −$88
weather 2% −$96
world 0% −$40
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -23.9% -31.1% 38% 32% -20.6%
≤30d 428 -24.2% -31.4% 42% 36% -20.7%
≤90d 786 -16.8% -24.8% 45% 39% -18.3%
all 786 -16.8% -24.8% 45% 39% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 39% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 31% -26.1%
15% -38.5% 23% -33.3%
20% -44.6% 17% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$731
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses351 / 435
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)786 / 786
History coverage67d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 786 Trades
no open positions (348 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$5 +23%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $71 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$3 +15%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$40 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$56 +91%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$22 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$7 +7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$14 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$18 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$19 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$87 +330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$2 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $20 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 36¢ $74 3h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 34¢ $71 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $20 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $44 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $116 4d
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 4d
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 4d
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1999 history records