Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadf3…82a8 other 9 markets active 15h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-7%) realized −$13 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$6
politics 45% −$10
crypto 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$10 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1 / 9
History coverage9d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $102 $92 −$10 (-10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $39 $66 +$27 (+70%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $40 $15 −$25 (-62%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$3 (+25%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.36 · official $212.36 (match) · 20 history records