Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xadf4…997a sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,223 (-4%) realized −$5,264 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate34%33W / 65L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,313per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1,481est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$84
14 days−$84
30 days+$1,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$3,172
other 29% −$4,195
politics 5% −$4,360
world 5% −$242
crypto 2% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -33.5% -39.8% 25% 25% +59.2%
≤90d 68 -11.4% -19.8% 37% 25% -9.2%
all 98 -14.8% -22.9% 34% 19% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 19% -12.6%
10% -30.3% 14% -21.0%
15% -37.0% 12% -28.6%
20% -43.2% 10% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$1,763) neutral
Persistence
early -20% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$854 vs −$522 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$1,114
Realized−$5,264
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses33 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1,481
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage241d
Avg bet$1,313
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 83¢ 78¢ $447 $420 −$27 (-6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 52¢ $383 $401 +$18 (+5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 39¢ 47¢ $243 $293 +$50 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $86 −$84 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 31 $1,035 +$1,717 +166%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 28 $148 −$148 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 27 $304 −$297 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 18 $1,550 +$764 +49%
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud May 17 $1,738 −$293 -17%
Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon May 17 $0 $0 -12%
Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 17 $2,207 −$2,207 -100%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 16 $16 $0 -0%
Parma: Dayana Yastremska vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 16 $23 $0 -0%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) May 16 $756 $0 -0%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $3,651 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 16 $3 $0 -0%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 14 $4,760 +$2,337 +49%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $277 −$270 -97%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Conten May 13 $6,593 +$104 +2%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs HereWeGoAgain - Map 1 Winner May 12 $2 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South Amer May 12 $4 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $565 −$10 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 - Map 2 Winner May 11 $384 +$93 +24%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Turma do Pagode (BO3) - Odyssey Cup May 11 $388 +$753 +194%
Map Handicap: FF (-1.5) vs Dripmen (+1.5) May 10 $87 +$5 +6%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $1,106 −$96 -9%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $420 −$7 -2%
Counter-Strike: Clair Obscur vs SHISHKA (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders May 09 $727 +$140 +19%
Map Handicap: CGN (-1.5) vs RIZON (+1.5) May 09 $1,099 +$1,246 +113%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? May 09 $738 −$726 -98%
Valorant: CGN Esports vs RIZON - Map 2 Winner May 09 $483 −$424 -88%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 May 08 $2,950 −$2,303 -78%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner May 07 $22 −$2 -7%
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $176 −$176 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $4,990 +$4,425 +89%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs Wolves Esports (BO1) - BLAST R6 Major Salt L May 06 $3 $0 -10%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Pl May 04 $587 −$577 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $2,384 −$53 -2%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? Apr 30 $4,066 −$3,387 -83%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Apr 30 $32 +$1 +2%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $1,601 +$299 +19%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $1,219 +$695 +57%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $2,418 +$289 +12%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Apr 29 $1,570 −$163 -10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $1,215 +$372 +31%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Apr 29 $126 −$3 -3%
Madrid Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensik Apr 28 $688 −$688 -100%
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 27 $8,129 −$1,831 -22%
Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Liudmila Samsonova Apr 26 $498 −$17 -3%
Noskova vs. Samsonova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Apr 26 $1,638 −$86 -5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,243 +$21 +2%
Game Handicap: OMG (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Apr 12 $1,857 −$1,857 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 39¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 39¢ $93 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 39¢ $180 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 49¢ $6 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $395 9h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $450 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 35¢ $239 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 35¢ $249 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $3 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $83 30h
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series SELL FOKUS 100¢ $2,752 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 39¢ $222 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $42 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $2 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $6 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $1 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $1 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $90 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $3 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $10 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $8 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $1 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $2 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $196 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $2 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $3 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $2 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $2 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $4 25d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY FOKUS 37¢ $423 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,114.32 · official $1,114.32 (match) · 939 history records