Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadf5…1eb7 crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+11%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day59.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.5% -9.0% 55% 55% +4.9%
≤30d 33 +0.5% -9.0% 55% 55% +4.9%
≤90d 33 +0.5% -9.0% 55% 55% +4.9%
all 33 +0.5% -9.0% 55% 55% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 55% +4.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 55% -5.1%
15% -25.7% 55% -14.3%
20% -33.0% 48% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 50¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$14 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.89 (match) · 68 history records