Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xadfa…324e
sports · 216 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$34,164 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$41,323 · open +$7,160
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50,601
Realized−$41,323
Unrealized+$7,160
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses104 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$11,922
Open positions7
Markets (closed)222 / 216
History coverage31d
Avg bet$4,449
Trades / day105.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 7 History 222 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12,704
7 days+$20,657
14 days+$11,995
30 days−$7,673
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 46¢ 100¢ $5,520 $11,994 +$6,474 (+117%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $11,760 $11,160 −$600 (-5%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 56¢ 56¢ $6,720 $6,779 +$59 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 50¢ 54¢ $6,000 $6,420 +$420 (+7%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 55¢ $5,368 $5,418 +$50 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $4,134 $4,381 +$247 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3,440 $3,340 −$100 (-3%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 53¢ 54¢ $1,099 $1,109 +$10 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 50¢ 0¢ $6,000 $0 −$6,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B M80 35¢ 0¢ $605 $0 −$605 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sinners 47¢ 0¢ $5,640 $0 −$5,640 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 40¢ 0¢ $4,000 $0 −$4,000 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 40¢ 0¢ $4,800 $0 −$4,800 (-100%)
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs Solary 50¢ 0¢ $7,500 $0 −$7,500 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Sinners 31¢ 0¢ $3,720 $0 −$3,720 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? No 53¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 18¢ 0¢ $1,620 $0 −$1,620 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $5,100 $0 −$5,100 (-100%)
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs The Huns Esports (+1.5) Monte 60¢ 0¢ $1,551 $0 −$1,551 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Liquid 41¢ 0¢ $4,920 $0 −$4,920 (-100%)
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $3,690 $0 −$3,690 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 M80 39¢ 0¢ $4,680 $0 −$4,680 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Gentle Mates 57¢ 0¢ $4,139 $0 −$4,139 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Martin Landaluce Hamad Medjedovic 62¢ 0¢ $7,440 $0 −$7,440 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Lynn Vision 30¢ 0¢ $2,470 $0 −$2,470 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 12 $605 −$605 -100%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs The Huns Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,551 −$1,551 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Martin Landaluce Jun 12 $7,440 −$7,440 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 12 $4,440 −$4,440 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $458 −$458 -100%
Paris: Shuai Zhang vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Oeiras 4: Facundo Acosta vs Hugo Dellien Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? Jun 12 $820 −$820 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $581 −$581 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 12 $1,784 −$1,784 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 12 $6,900 −$6,900 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $4,680 +$7,320 +156%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $3,360 +$8,640 +257%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $7,200 +$4,800 +67%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3,840 +$8,160 +212%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $8,100 −$8,100 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5,640 +$6,360 +113%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5,280 +$6,720 +127%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,056 −$2,056 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $6,960 −$6,960 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $169 +$287 +170%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5,850 +$3,150 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $4,320 +$7,680 +178%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7,560 +$4,440 +59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7,560 −$7,560 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7,440 +$4,560 +61%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,815 +$1,160 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $501 +$294 +59%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $5,615 +$6,769 +121%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6,600 +$5,400 +82%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $6,257 −$6,257 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5,640 +$6,360 +113%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $3,870 −$3,870 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $5,811 −$4,845 -83%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $6,720 +$5,280 +79%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $5,545 +$6,455 +116%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $687 +$458 +67%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $2,416 +$1,137 +47%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $1,097 −$1,097 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 +$18 +89%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $196 −$196 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $6,727 +$4,485 +67%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $6,840 +$5,160 +75%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $6,840 −$6,840 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,600 +$5,400 +150%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,960 −$3,960 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,230 +$4,770 +113%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,500 +$4,500 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% −$13,342
other 16% +$9,771
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 53¢ $33 1m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $12 1m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $59 2m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $117 3m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $463 3m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $28 4m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $35 6m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $7 6m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $6 6m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $2 6m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $6 6m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $12 6m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $6 6m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $58 7m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 7m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $153 7m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 8m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $58 8m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $5 8m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $554 8m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $287 8m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $19 8m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $22 8m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $4 8m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $9 8m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $69 8m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $6 8m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3,260 8m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $6 8m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $58 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 49% -1.8%
≤30d 187 +5.2% -4.8% 50% 49% -10.3%
≤90d 222 -0.8% -10.3% 47% 46% -13.5%
all 222 -0.8% -10.3% 47% 46% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover105.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 46% -13.5%
10% -18.9% 46% -21.8%
15% ← realistic here -26.7% 45% -29.3%
20% -33.9% 43% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50,600.70 · official $50,601.90 (match) · 3500 history records