Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae00…f8f4 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$149 (+1%) realized +$238 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%24W / 26L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$193
14 days+$153
30 days+$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$220
sports 33% −$240
crypto 1% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +4.8% -5.2% 53% 50% -11.2%
≤30d 50 -6.1% -15.1% 48% 46% -8.3%
≤90d 50 -6.1% -15.1% 48% 46% -8.3%
all 50 -6.1% -15.1% 48% 46% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 46% -8.3%
10% -23.2% 42% -17.1%
15% -30.6% 36% -25.1%
20% -37.4% 26% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$156 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$389
Realized+$238
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses24 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage9d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $140 $135 −$5 (-4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 69¢ 30¢ $138 $59 −$79 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $397 −$390 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $467 −$460 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $746 +$254 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $450 −$443 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $120 −$117 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $194 −$189 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $447 +$527 +118%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $377 −$370 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $113 −$110 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $664 +$215 +32%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $547 +$453 +83%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $141 +$59 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $427 +$573 +134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $546 +$34 +6%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $245 −$240 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $123 −$118 -96%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $417 −$410 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $814 +$190 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $107 +$193 +180%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $133 +$67 +50%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $235 −$230 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $330 +$70 +21%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $91 −$90 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $382 +$218 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $137 −$136 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $137 −$136 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $137 +$63 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $23 +$177 +785%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $133 +$67 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $115 +$85 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $140 −$138 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $839 +$101 +12%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $117 +$70 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $123 +$77 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $95 +$105 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $382 +$218 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $195 +$284 +146%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$76 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $133 +$67 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $144 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $397 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $467 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $450 8h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 74¢ $746 8h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $120 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $194 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $974 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $447 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $377 28h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 29h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 11¢ $113 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $664 32h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 54¢ $547 32h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $141 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $427 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $467 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $79 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $245 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $123 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $417 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $489 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $325 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $107 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $235 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $330 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $91 3d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $133 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.00 · official $389.00 (match) · 84 history records