Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AE 0xae03…378c sports 14 markets active 12d ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$587 (-29%) realized −$587 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$175
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$49
crypto 24% −$500
sports 21% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 36% -21.8%
≤90d 11 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 36% -21.8%
all 14 -18.1% -25.9% 36% 36% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 36% -33.1%
10% -33.0% 29% -39.5%
15% -39.4% 29% -45.3%
20% -45.4% 14% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$97 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$587
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage107d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$94 -93%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$84 +272%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$57 +94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 03 $800 +$90 +11%
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 03 $100 −$24 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 12d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 12d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 12d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 75¢ $98 15d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $101 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $6 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 71¢ $101 15d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 68¢ $50 15d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $114 15d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $118 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 17d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5? BUY Yes 26¢ $500 116d
Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $890 117d
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 26¢ $76 118d
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 118d
Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $800 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records