Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AE 0xae06…be4d sports 177 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,197 (-5%) realized −$1,276 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%113W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$145
7 days−$531
14 days−$1,037
30 days−$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$866
other 4% −$412
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -31.4% -37.9% 48% 40% -22.7%
≤30d 78 -9.6% -18.2% 63% 58% -14.2%
≤90d 174 -7.5% -16.3% 65% 61% -15.1%
all 174 -7.5% -16.3% 65% 61% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 61% -15.1%
10% -24.3% 48% -23.3%
15% -31.6% 29% -30.7%
20% -38.3% 18% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$111 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$436
Realized−$1,276
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses113 / 61
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions3
Markets (closed)174 / 177
History coverage75d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $193 $236 +$43 (+22%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner 100 Thieves 72¢ 100¢ $144 $200 +$56 (+39%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $117 −$21 -18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $210 +$140 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $130 −$130 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $124 +$21 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $362 +$137 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $140 +$60 +43%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $116 +$84 +72%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $174 −$60 -35%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $332 +$14 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $99 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $132 −$132 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $106 −$104 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $137 −$136 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $36 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $162 +$88 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $147 −$145 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $145 −$145 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $375 +$125 +33%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $225 +$25 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $146 −$144 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $225 +$25 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $156 +$44 +28%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $225 −$225 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $55 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $200 +$50 +25%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $152 +$48 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $80 +$20 +25%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $173 +$19 +11%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $200 +$50 +25%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $75 +$25 +33%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $321 +$29 +9%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $47 +$20 +43%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $9 +$5 +54%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $80 +$20 +25%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $50 +$50 +100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $55 +$45 +82%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $49 +$51 +104%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $80 +$33 +41%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs Jun 03 $88 +$12 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 49¢ $97 1h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 72¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 72¢ $140 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $117 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 60¢ $210 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $56 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $74 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $0 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 73¢ $145 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $64 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $33 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $24 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $499 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 80¢ $149 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 80¢ $51 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 65¢ $113 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 65¢ $23 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 65¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 65¢ $7 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 85¢ $8 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 85¢ $77 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $107 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $9 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 75¢ $48 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 75¢ $2 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 75¢ $19 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 75¢ $45 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.75 · official $435.75 (match) · 490 history records