Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae09…4d75 crypto 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (317 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate79%74W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day317.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$54
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (317 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +7.8% -2.4% 79% 50% -11.3%
≤30d 94 +7.8% -2.4% 79% 50% -11.3%
≤90d 94 +7.8% -2.4% 79% 50% -11.3%
all 94 +7.8% -2.4% 79% 50% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover317.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 50% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 31% -19.8%
15% -20.3% 16% -27.5%
20% -28.1% 9% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$18 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses74 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)94 / 97
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day317.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 44¢ 100¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+126%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 98¢ 14¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$10 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$9 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$5 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $72 −$13 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $64 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $122 −$95 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $67 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $47 +$32 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$7 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $63 +$16 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$7 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$9 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $35 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $40 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $47 −$2 -3%
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 26 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $34 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$3 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$3 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $80 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.28 · official $25.13 (match) · 434 history records