Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae0a…f0c8
crypto · 1409 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$600 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$600 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$600
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses634 / 772
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1406 / 1409
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day333.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1406 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,963
7 days−$807
14 days−$600
30 days−$600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1,536
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1256 -14.7% -22.8% 43% 33% -17.5%
≤30d 1406 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 35% -14.6%
≤90d 1406 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 35% -14.6%
all 1406 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 35% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover333.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 35% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 26% -22.8%
15% -34.2% 20% -30.3%
20% -40.6% 17% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records