Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

AE 0xae0b…5b5f other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,922 (+7%) realized +$1,600 · open +$322

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate53%9W / 8L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown72%max

Avg bet$1,358per market

Trades / day5.7pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit19%portable

Net worth$5,876now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$684

7 days+$1,564

14 days+$1,692

30 days+$1,692

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-25.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-20.4%	-28.0%	47%	40%	+0.4%
≤30d	17	-17.7%	-25.6%	53%	35%	-2.2%
≤90d	17	-17.7%	-25.6%	53%	35%	-2.2%
all	17	-17.7%	-25.6%	53%	35%	-2.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.6%	35%	-2.2%
10%	-32.7%	29%	-11.5%
15%	-39.2%	29%	-20.1%
20%	-45.1%	12%	-27.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,024) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +0% → late -34% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$369 vs −$204 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$5,876

Realized+$1,600

Unrealized+$322

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses9 / 8

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions4

Markets (closed)17 / 21

History coverage7d

Avg bet$1,358

Trades / day5.7

Drawdown72%

Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	No	89¢	100¢	$3,054	$3,429	+$376 (+12%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$1,000	$992	−$8 (-1%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$1,000	$968	−$32 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$500	$486	−$14 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$206	+$102	+50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$3,412	+$102	+3%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 19	$52	−$50	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$513	+$529	+103%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,023	+$429	+42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$309	−$309	-100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$513	−$513	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$204	−$204	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$256	−$256	-100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 17	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 17	$207	−$207	-100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$103	+$139	+135%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$2,042	+$965	+47%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$4,348	+$930	+21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1,021	−$73	-7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$4,560	+$67	+2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$2,024	+$61	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	89¢	$3,094	25m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	61¢	$1,511	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	79¢	$2,033	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	37¢	$103	2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	SELL Yes	8¢	$38	3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	20¢	$103	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	94¢	$1,757	4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	94¢	$879	4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	94¢	$879	4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$3,412	4h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$52	6h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY Yes	24¢	$1,033	15h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$518	15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$1,020	24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$513	41h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	84¢	$1,452	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	34¢	$309	4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	15¢	$52	4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	74¢	$242	4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$103	4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	46¢	$513	4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$204	4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	55¢	$205	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$1,023	4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	94¢	$1,222	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	76¢	$1,017	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	93¢	$1,784	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$512	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$512	5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,875.80 · official $5,875.80 (match) · 51 history records