Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae0c…0b7c crypto 46 markets active 9d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 46 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 39% -12.1%
≤90d 46 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 39% -12.1%
all 46 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 39% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 39% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 33% -20.5%
15% -24.2% 33% -28.2%
20% -31.7% 28% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$5 +457%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$6 +530%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$14 +260%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$14 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 9d
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $7 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records