Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae0f…f647 sports 109 markets active 3h ago coverage 59d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$205,490 (-20%) realized −$205,490 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%54W / 50L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,434per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Fees−$12,827est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23,302
7 days−$130,453
14 days−$125,384
30 days−$167,365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$191,639
other 5% −$13,210
crypto 1% −$4,327
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +139.2% +116.5% 33% 29% -64.6%
≤30d 35 +90.0% +71.9% 37% 31% -51.7%
≤90d 104 +24.2% +12.3% 52% 38% -30.5%
all 104 +24.2% +12.3% 52% 38% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.3% 38% -30.5%
10% +1.6% 28% -37.2%
15% ← realistic here -8.2% 20% -43.2%
20% -17.2% 17% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$12,012) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
21.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,205 vs −$7,644 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$205,490
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses54 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$12,827
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 109
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$9,434
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $720 −$134 -19%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,114 −$108 -10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $754 −$735 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $9,730 +$11,557 +119%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $13,371 +$384 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18,982 −$680 -4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15,118 +$3,481 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30,399 +$9,538 +31%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30,369 −$29,888 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $67,596 −$46,288 -68%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20,000 −$20,000 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $29,504 −$29,503 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $78 +$95 +122%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30,522 −$15,214 -50%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $5,434 −$5,372 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $485 −$485 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4,046 −$91 -2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,800 −$3,800 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $4,145 −$4,145 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,700 −$4,700 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2,886 +$5,359 +186%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $4,040 +$1,815 +45%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,340 +$6,651 +284%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8,420 −$8,189 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $5,038 −$958 -19%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5,002 +$7,058 +141%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $5,593 −$1,031 -18%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 04 $12,361 +$7,477 +60%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $21,094 −$20,931 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $29,043 −$25,562 -88%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $17,559 −$6,033 -34%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 29 $13,000 −$6,395 -49%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 May 28 $11,235 +$1,352 +12%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $39,516 +$1,719 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $10,744 +$6,390 +60%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $23,461 −$23,461 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $1,600 −$1,590 -99%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 17 $2,994 +$2,475 +83%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $3,250 −$3,241 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $3,526 −$3,517 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $2,313 −$2,312 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $2,563 −$2,563 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $473 −$466 -99%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 9.5 May 15 $2,508 +$1,232 +49%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 May 14 $2,598 +$455 +18%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 14 $7,580 −$7,580 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 14 $1,267 +$349 +28%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $4,926 +$2,985 +61%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 May 14 $2,817 +$430 +15%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 14 $4,960 −$2,156 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 20¢ $586 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 10¢ $1,006 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $505 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $0 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $218 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $0 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $0 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $0 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $116 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $40 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $56 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $4 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $5 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $7 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $3 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $11 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $0 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $15 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $2 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $6 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $0 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $4 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $3 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $111 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $4 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $1 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $0 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $64 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.69 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records