Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xae0f…95f3 crypto 1457 markets active 4d ago coverage 30d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%1383W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$348
14 days−$269
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$53
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -44.9% -50.2% 53% 1% -44.5%
≤30d 1100 -1.9% -11.3% 94% 1% -11.1%
≤90d 1457 -0.7% -10.2% 95% 1% -10.2%
all 1457 -0.7% -10.2% 95% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 1% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1383 / 74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1457 / 1457
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1457 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records