Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae10…16c4 sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,159 (+20%) realized +$1,264 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%25W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$840
7 days+$1,528
14 days+$1,819
30 days+$767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$811
world 5% −$71
other 2% −$17
culture 2% −$94
crypto 1% −$41
tech 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -19.1% -26.8% 26% 26% +69.6%
≤30d 50 -26.5% -33.5% 28% 28% +8.1%
≤90d 54 -18.0% -25.8% 31% 31% +10.2%
all 73 -16.7% -24.6% 34% 34% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 34% +3.7%
10% -31.9% 26% -6.2%
15% -38.4% 25% -15.3%
20% -44.5% 22% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$49 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$1,264
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses25 / 48
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage133d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 68¢ 16¢ $136 $31 −$105 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $177 −$139 -79%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $9 −$2 -22%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $16 +$24 +146%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $19 −$18 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $30 +$5 +16%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $253 +$864 +342%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$388 +190%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $597 +$743 +124%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $148 −$58 -39%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $49 +$135 +273%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $134 −$131 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $134 +$192 +144%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 06 $39 −$6 -16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $255 +$209 +82%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 04 $53 −$52 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $51 −$28 -55%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $101 +$91 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $190 −$25 -13%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 29 $84 +$18 +21%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 29 $30 −$11 -35%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $102 −$77 -76%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 27 $171 +$66 +38%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $163 −$160 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $20 −$11 -53%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 May 26 $31 −$1 -4%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $117 −$115 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $665 −$651 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $217 −$25 -11%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $67 −$25 -38%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $20 +$15 +74%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $20 +$16 +79%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 19 $15 +$14 +93%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 79¢ $98 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 25¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 40¢ $12 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 8¢ $10 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 34¢ $7 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 66¢ $121 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 42¢ $9 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $22 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 22¢ $20 3h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 3h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 3h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 24¢ $5 3h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 25¢ $5 3h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 40¢ $16 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $7 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $12 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 30¢ $15 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $3 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $7 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 22¢ $20 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 21¢ $20 5h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $20 5h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 49¢ $102 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 21¢ $19 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $6 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.00 · official $31.00 (match) · 332 history records