Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xae10…3fa3 crypto 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$404 (+18%) realized +$425 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate42%58W / 79L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days+$595
14 days+$569
30 days+$468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$465
world 4% −$59
other 2% −$15
tech 1% −$7
finance 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -4.3% -13.4% 63% 46% +25.6%
≤30d 104 -17.9% -25.7% 51% 37% +14.0%
≤90d 137 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 30% +8.5%
all 137 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 30% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 30% +8.5%
10% -31.9% 18% -1.9%
15% -38.5% 14% -11.4%
20% -44.5% 9% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$425
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses58 / 79
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions30
Markets (closed)137 / 167
History coverage34d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-44%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 12¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-32%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 7¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 16 $1 $0 -33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$4 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$11 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$38 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$33 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $36 +$14 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$37 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $37 +$10 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $40 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$19 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3m
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15m
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 25m
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 32m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 43m
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 7¢ $1 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 4h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.16 · official $81.16 (match) · 411 history records