Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:59:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae13…3b66
other · 189 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$53 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$53 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses77 / 106
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)183 / 189
History coverage94d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 6 History 183 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will IF Elfsborg win on 2026-05-29? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $8 −$4 -52%
Will IF Elfsborg win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$2 +79%
Will FK LNZ Cherkasy win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 −$2 -75%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $2 +$3 +158%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-09? May 06 $5 $0 -6%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2 +$3 +145%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $3 +$3 +92%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $12 +$9 +70%
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA River Plate end in a draw? May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $2 +$1 +70%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Apr 30 $1 +$1 +62%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $18 +$17 +93%
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2 +$2 +100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $3 +$3 +93%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $3 +$1 +39%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1 +$1 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$121
crypto 39% +$51
sports 6% −$1
world 5% +$18
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $2 13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $3 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 2d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 13d
Will IF Elfsborg win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 19d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 19d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 19d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 19d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 19d
Will FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 19d
Will FK LNZ Cherkasy win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 19d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +52.4% +37.9% 75% 75% +40.0%
≤30d 12 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 50% -12.5%
≤90d 112 -13.4% -21.7% 42% 41% -38.1%
all 183 -5.4% -14.4% 42% 42% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 42% -14.9%
10% -22.6% 37% -23.1%
15% -30.1% 35% -30.5%
20% -36.9% 26% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.46 · official $16.46 (match) · 466 history records