Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AE 0xae1c…6842 other 14 markets active 3d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$24 (+3%) realized +$4 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$99
sports 13% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+51.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +67.8% +51.9% 38% 38% -8.6%
≤30d 13 +67.8% +51.9% 38% 38% -8.6%
≤90d 13 +67.8% +51.9% 38% 38% -8.6%
all 13 +67.8% +51.9% 38% 38% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +51.9% 38% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here +37.3% 31% -17.4%
15% +24.1% 31% -25.3%
20% +11.9% 23% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +229% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$16 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $285 $305 +$20 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$3 -3%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $171 +$20 +12%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$22 +216%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$48 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 +$32 +1115%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 -15%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $98 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $98 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $7 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $39 3d
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $45 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $92 3d
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $171 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $150 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.81 · official $304.81 (match) · 33 history records