Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AE 0xae21…0970 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$88 (+15%) realized +$100 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate58%21W / 15L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$80
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$66
sports 18% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +18.7% +7.4% 59% 41% +6.8%
≤30d 36 +16.5% +5.4% 58% 44% +6.1%
≤90d 36 +16.5% +5.4% 58% 44% +6.1%
all 36 +16.5% +5.4% 58% 44% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 44% +6.1%
10% -4.7% 39% -4.0%
15% -13.9% 33% -13.3%
20% -22.4% 22% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$100
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses21 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage11d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 83¢ 70¢ $67 $57 −$10 (-15%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Under 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$9 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$32 +191%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 $0 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$25 +63%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $28 +$4 +13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 −$6 -51%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 +$9 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17 +$6 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$5 -56%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -81%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $4 −$1 -16%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$10 +476%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -84%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $63 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $96 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $6 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $60 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $26 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 88¢ $28 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $31 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $23 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $17 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.56 · official $85.56 (match) · 79 history records