Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae23…142e tech 129 markets active 3d ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$31,185 (+32%) realized +$31,185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%37W / 92L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$767per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$206
14 days+$206
30 days−$4,946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 69% +$27,337
other 24% +$4,749
crypto 3% −$1,007
politics 2% +$211
world 1% −$314
culture 0% −$184
sports 0% −$33
economics 0% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.9% -4.2% 33% 17% -7.1%
≤30d 39 -34.7% -40.9% 18% 15% -35.6%
≤90d 104 -65.1% -68.4% 12% 11% -50.0%
all 129 -25.8% -32.9% 29% 26% +18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 26% +18.5%
10% -39.3% 20% +7.2%
15% -45.2% 16% -3.2%
20% -50.6% 11% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$524) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,363 vs −$215 · ×6.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31,185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses37 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage220d
Avg bet$767
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,906 −$35 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,747 −$74 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,153 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $1,008 −$104 -10%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? May 30 $660 −$476 -72%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $250 +$72 +29%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? May 29 $205 −$112 -54%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? May 29 $300 −$167 -56%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 29 $100 +$77 +77%
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Ch May 29 $200 −$44 -22%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $361 −$90 -25%
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? May 29 $565 −$519 -92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $300 −$250 -83%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 29 $100 −$78 -78%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $809 −$800 -99%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $15 −$3 -22%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? May 29 $300 −$136 -45%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? May 29 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $125 −$119 -95%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $75 −$68 -90%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 −$7 -71%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $300 −$298 -99%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $35 −$30 -86%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $100 −$23 -23%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $200 −$17 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $250 +$93 +37%
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? May 29 $150 +$25 +17%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $267 −$255 -96%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $498 −$396 -80%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $1,627 −$1,145 -70%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $700 −$439 -63%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $25 −$22 -90%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2 $0 -3%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $222 −$215 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $273 +$475 +174%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $240 −$181 -76%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 10 $60 +$41 +68%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 24 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 24 $85 −$83 -98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 24 $20 −$9 -47%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $100 +$87 +87%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $150 +$83 +56%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $300 −$253 -84%
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? Apr 23 $1,847 −$1,465 -79%
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? Apr 23 $1,229 −$999 -81%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $1,871 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $1,673 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2,149 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,747 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $1,906 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,153 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $905 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1,008 5d
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $184 15d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $322 15d
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 16d
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $93 16d
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $133 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $177 16d
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Ch SELL No 55¢ $156 16d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 4¢ $89 16d
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $46 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $50 16d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $22 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 0¢ $8 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 16d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $164 16d
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 16d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 16d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 16d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 16d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 819 history records