Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae27…e786 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$320 (-18%) realized −$189 · open −$131
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$99
14 days−$59
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$327
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -27.9% -34.8% 20% 20% -27.1%
≤30d 14 -43.5% -48.8% 21% 21% -27.5%
≤90d 14 -43.5% -48.8% 21% 21% -27.5%
all 14 -43.5% -48.8% 21% 21% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 21% -27.5%
10% -53.7% 21% -34.4%
15% -58.2% 14% -40.8%
20% -62.3% 0% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$27 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$436
Realized−$189
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)14 / 20
History coverage28d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $223 $210 −$13 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $248 $169 −$79 (-32%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-78%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $102 −$14 -14%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $90 −$16 -18%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $206 −$99 -48%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $206 +$48 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $77 −$21 -27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $68 −$67 -98%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $41 −$40 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 42¢ $88 55m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 23h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes $74 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 2d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 7d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 7d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 7d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes $6 8d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 8d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 8d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 8d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 9d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 9d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $43 9d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.96 · official $435.96 (match) · 104 history records