Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:59:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae2a…4f98 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$1 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% $0
other 20% −$3
politics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -9.1%
all 32 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage454d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 91¢ 87¢ $35 $34 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $16 −$1 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $32 +$2 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $37 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $84 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $20 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $24 +$2 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $7 $0 +2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 09 $7 $0 +3%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 06 $8 $0 +3%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $35 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $35 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $35 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $20 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $16 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $13 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $3 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 37¢ $16 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $1 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $34 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $32 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $37 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $29 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $8 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 7¢ $2 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 11¢ $4 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $21 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $41 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $41 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $26 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $24 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $39 33d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $39 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.93 · official $33.93 (match) · 98 history records