Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae2b…90ea other 419 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$133,592 (-15%) realized −$137,960 · open −$4,571
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%153W / 243L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,147per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$304est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$100,806now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$302,413
7 days−$302,652
14 days−$302,652
30 days−$291,846
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$63,805
sports 21% −$73,820
crypto 5% +$3,008
world 1% −$7,810
culture 0% −$103
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 -69.7% -72.6% 7% 6% -91.1%
≤30d 194 -63.9% -67.4% 10% 9% -85.1%
≤90d 205 -53.1% -57.5% 15% 13% -76.7%
all 396 -4.2% -13.3% 39% 38% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 38% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 37% -32.4%
15% -29.2% 35% -39.0%
20% -36.1% 32% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$1,200) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +51% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,880 vs −$1,751 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$100,806
Realized−$137,960
Unrealized−$4,571
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses153 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$304
Open positions23
Markets (closed)396 / 419
History coverage140d
Avg bet$2,147
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $95,667 $95,108 −$559 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2,000 $1,985 −$15 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $560 $558 −$2 (-0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $400 $450 +$50 (+13%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $400 $354 −$46 (-12%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $300 $293 −$7 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 58¢ 58¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 19¢ 18¢ $250 $243 −$7 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $250 $241 −$9 (-4%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 26¢ 24¢ $250 $236 −$14 (-6%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 21¢ 22¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ 22¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $1,000 $105 −$895 (-90%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $100 $23 −$77 (-77%)
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $250 $15 −$235 (-94%)
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $100 $9 −$91 (-91%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $800 $3 −$797 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1,800 $2 −$1,798 (-100%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $165 $0 −$165 (-100%)
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $171 −$165 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $705 −$16 -2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $203 +$10 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $1,013 −$43 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $454 −$12 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $303 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $251 −$251 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $158 −$158 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,760 −$1,760 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $103 +$1,671 +1624%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $106 +$748 +705%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $108 −$105 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $556 +$317 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $455 −$11 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 326: Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar (Flyweight, Early Prelims) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 326: Cody Brundage vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-18? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Macclesfield FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2025-12-06? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-07? Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-22? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-19? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-15? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $225 +$115 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $68 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $305 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $285 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $306 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $689 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $213 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $162 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $205 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $203 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $154 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $205 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $256 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 26¢ $256 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $253 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $969 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $442 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 62¢ $292 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $203 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 3h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $761 3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 16¢ $256 8h
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $33 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100,806.23 · official $100,806.21 (match) · 1428 history records