Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae2b…9cc3
sports · 361 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,729 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,326 · open +$1,597
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,407
Realized−$7,326
Unrealized+$1,597
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses209 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$4,334
Open positions3
Markets (closed)358 / 361
History coverage667d
Avg bet$1,124
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 3 History 358 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$635
7 days+$1,055
14 days−$1,560
30 days−$2,139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 69¢ 69¢ $4,160 $4,189 +$30 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte 35¢ 100¢ $850 $2,428 +$1,578 (+186%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Legacy 39¢ 38¢ $799 $789 −$10 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner B8 36¢ 0¢ $705 $0 −$705 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner B8 43¢ 0¢ $775 $0 −$775 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4,149 −$1,366 -33%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7,852 +$1,914 +24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $715 −$705 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,033 −$997 -96%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,739 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $11,108 −$2,137 -19%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $4,193 +$2,559 +61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $380 −$380 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $2,649 +$418 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3,077 +$103 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,149 +$634 +55%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $563 −$563 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $438 −$438 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,643 −$1,166 -71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4,561 +$507 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,876 −$707 -38%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,406 +$602 +25%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $480 +$1,162 +242%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6,327 −$305 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4,447 +$3,788 +85%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $9,200 −$1,407 -15%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $427 −$427 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $518 −$518 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $1,204 −$1,204 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $2,835 +$2,807 +99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $704 +$826 +117%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,292 −$943 -41%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5,262 +$1,123 +21%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,841 +$1,229 +67%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,501 −$1,501 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $303 −$303 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,716 +$383 +14%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,467 +$1,655 +113%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $561 +$728 +130%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,041 −$1,041 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $2,915 −$694 -24%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,939 +$1,138 +59%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,214 +$1,446 +119%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,767 −$1,465 -39%
Will paiN qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $661 −$16 -2%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $29 +$11 +36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,009 −$1,009 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5,757 +$341 +6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $673 +$857 +127%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,194 +$581 +14%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $740 +$559 +75%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,326 −$980 -42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $135 −$103 -76%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $140 +$186 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$17,594
other 13% +$11,748
crypto 1% +$135
politics 1% −$213
tech 0% +$170
world 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $18 5m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $22 5m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 39¢ $177 5m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 39¢ $4 6m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $4 6m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 39¢ $1 6m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $2 7m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 39¢ $245 8m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $28 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $3 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $6 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $645 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $993 11m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $18 11m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $6 11m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $4 13m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $9 13m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $3 13m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $3 14m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $50 15m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $37 15m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 39¢ $19 16m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 39¢ $13 16m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 39¢ $3 16m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 39¢ $344 16m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $21 18m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $22 22m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $9 23m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $4 24m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $28 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -8.5% -17.2% 45% 38% -8.7%
≤30d 162 -5.8% -14.8% 51% 41% -10.1%
≤90d 167 -8.0% -16.8% 50% 40% -10.6%
all 358 -5.4% -14.4% 58% 48% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 48% -11.1%
10% -22.6% 32% -19.6%
15% -30.1% 22% -27.4%
20% -36.9% 17% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,406.52 · official $7,407.12 (match) · 3232 history records