Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AE 0xae2d…2bc4 sports 915 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,188 (+3%) realized +$5,186 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate94%855W / 58L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$304est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$565now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 115d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$143
other 21% −$340
world 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +5.3% -4.7% 81% 33% -12.3%
≤30d 176 +4.2% -5.7% 90% 17% -8.7%
≤90d 699 +8.0% -2.3% 93% 11% -8.1%
all 913 +11.4% +0.8% 94% 11% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 11% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -8.8% 6% -18.5%
15% -17.6% 4% -26.3%
20% -25.7% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$154 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$565
Realized+$5,186
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses855 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$304
Open positions2
Markets (closed)913 / 915
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$166
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 913 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $303 $303 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $260 $262 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $275 −$275 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $329 +$27 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $119 +$49 +41%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $98 +$55 +56%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $168 +$106 +63%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $588 −$588 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $495 +$5 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $323 +$218 +68%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $291 +$6 +2%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $411 +$11 +3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $104 +$96 +92%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $485 +$5 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $365 +$31 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,322 +$27 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $295 +$106 +36%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $286 +$14 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,089 +$11 +1%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $278 −$74 -27%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $64 +$32 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $267 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $799 −$158 -20%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $430 −$220 -51%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $219 −$219 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $187 +$201 +107%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $45 +$123 +273%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $46 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $611 +$71 +12%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $485 +$1 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $164 +$38 +24%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $165 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $17 $0 +2%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $295 +$142 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $288 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $715 +$3 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $185 +$55 +30%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $139 +$35 +25%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $255 −$108 -42%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs FUT Esports (+6.5) Jun 11 $45 +$5 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $107 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $573 +$11 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $282 +$12 +4%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $473 +$34 +7%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $137 +$10 +7%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $145 +$9 +6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $552 +$14 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $310 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $263 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 94¢ $53 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 94¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 94¢ $109 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 94¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 94¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 94¢ $160 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 94¢ $14 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 85¢ $6 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 85¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 85¢ $13 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 87¢ $176 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 87¢ $129 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $19 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $50 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $79 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 77¢ $153 21h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 91¢ $100 23h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 91¢ $27 23h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 92¢ $146 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $98 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 27h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.21 · official $565.21 (match) · 3500 history records